Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. METHODS: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Post-epidemic health system recovery: A comparative case study analysis of routine immunization programs in the Republics of Haiti and Liberia.

Large-scale epidemics in resource-constrained settings disrupt delivery of core health services, such as routine immunization. Rebuilding and strengthening routine immunization programs following epidemics is an essential step toward improving vaccine equity and averting future outbreaks. We performed a comparative case study analysis of routine immunization program recovery in Liberia and Haiti following the 2014-16 West Africa Ebola epidemic and 2010s cholera epidemic, respectively. First, we triangulated data between the peer-reviewed and grey literature; in-depth key informant interviews with subject matter experts; and quantitative metrics of population health and health system functioning. We used these data to construct thick descriptive narratives for each case. Finally, we performed a cross-case comparison by applying a thematic matrix based on the Essential Public Health Services framework to each case narrative. In Liberia, post-Ebola routine immunization coverage surpassed pre-epidemic levels, a feat attributable to investments in surveillance, comprehensive risk communication, robust political support for and leadership around immunization, and strong public-sector recovery planning. Recovery efforts in Haiti were fragmented across a broad range of non-governmental agencies. Limitations in funding, workforce development, and community engagement further impeded vaccine uptake. Consequently, Haiti reported significant disparities in subnational immunization coverage following the epidemic. This study suggests that embedding in-country expertise within outbreak response structures, respecting governmental autonomy, aligning post-epidemic recovery plans and policies, and integrating outbreak response assets into robust systems of primary care contribute to higher, more equitable levels of routine immunization coverage in resource-constrained settings recovering from epidemics.

Modeling epidemic recovery: An expert elicitation on issues and approaches.

Since the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in late 2019, the world has been in a state of high alert and reactivity. Once the acute stage of the infectious disease crisis does abate, however, few if any communities will have a detailed roadmap to guide recovery - that is, the process of becoming whole again and working to reduce similar, future risk. In both research and policy contexts where data are absent or difficult to obtain, expert judgment can help fill the void. Between November 2019 and February 2020, we conducted an expert elicitation process, asking fourteen key informants - with specializations in infectious diseases, disaster recovery, community resilience, public health, emergency management, and policymaking - to identify the design principles, priority issues, and field experiences that should inform development of an epidemic recovery model. Participants argued that recovery from epidemics is distinct from natural disasters due to epidemics' potential to produce effects over large areas for extended periods of time and ability to generate high levels of fear, anticipatory anxiety, and antisocial behavior. Furthermore, epidemic recovery is a complex, nonlinear process involving many domains - political, economic, sociocultural, infrastructural, and human health. As such, an adequate model of post-epidemic recovery should extend beyond strictly medical matters, specify units of interest (e.g., individual, family, institution, sector, community), capture differing trajectories of recovery given social determinants of health, and be fit for use depending upon user group (e.g., policymakers, responders, researchers). This formative study commences a longer-term effort to generate indicators for a holistic, transformative epidemic recovery at the community level.

Using prediction polling to harness collective intelligence for disease forecasting.

BACKGROUND: The global spread of COVID-19 has shown that reliable forecasting of public health related outcomes is important but lacking. METHODS: We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term experiment in crowd-forecasting of infectious-disease outbreaks, where a total of 562 volunteer participants competed over 15 months to make forecasts on 61 questions with a total of 217 possible answers regarding 19 diseases. RESULTS: Consistent with the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon, we found that crowd forecasts aggregated using best-practice adaptive algorithms are well-calibrated, accurate, timely, and outperform all individual forecasters. CONCLUSIONS: Crowd forecasting efforts in public health may be a useful addition to traditional disease surveillance, modeling, and other approaches to evidence-based decision making for infectious disease outbreaks.

The public's role in COVID-19 vaccination: Human-centered recommendations to enhance pandemic vaccine awareness, access, and acceptance in the United States.

Given the social and economic upheavals caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, political leaders, health officials, and members of the public are eager for solutions. One of the most promising, if they can be successfully developed, is vaccines. While the technological development of such countermeasures is currently underway, a key social gap remains. Past experience in routine and crisis contexts demonstrates that uptake of vaccines is more complicated than simply making the technology available. Vaccine uptake, and especially the widespread acceptance of vaccines, is a social endeavor that requires consideration of human factors. To provide a starting place for this critical component of a future COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the United States, the 23-person Working Group on Readying Populations for COVID-19 Vaccines was formed. One outcome of this group is a synthesis of the major challenges and opportunities associated with a future COVID-19 vaccination campaign and empirically-informed recommendations to advance public understanding of, access to, and acceptance of vaccines that protect against SARS-CoV-2. While not inclusive of all possible steps than could or should be done to facilitate COVID-19 vaccination, the working group believes that the recommendations provided are essential for a successful vaccination program.

The value proposition of the Global Health Security Index.

Infectious disease outbreaks pose major threats to human health and security. Countries with robust capacities for preventing, detecting and responding to outbreaks can avert many of the social, political, economic and health system costs of such crises. The Global Health Security Index (GHS Index)-the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries-recently found that no country is sufficiently prepared for epidemics or pandemics. The GHS Index can help health security stakeholders identify areas of weakness, as well as opportunities to collaborate across sectors, collectively strengthen health systems and achieve shared public health goals. Some scholars have recently offered constructive critiques of the GHS Index's approach to scoring and ranking countries; its weighting of select indicators; its emphasis on transparency; its focus on biosecurity and biosafety capacities; and divergence between select country scores and corresponding COVID-19-associated caseloads, morbidity, and mortality. Here, we (1) describe the practical value of the GHS Index; (2) present potential use cases to help policymakers and practitioners maximise the utility of the tool; (3) discuss the importance of scoring and ranking; (4) describe the robust methodology underpinning country scores and ranks; (5) highlight the GHS Index's emphasis on transparency and (6) articulate caveats for users wishing to use GHS Index data in health security research, policymaking and practice.

A checklist to improve health system resilience to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards.

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, including the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic and Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have demonstrated the critical importance of resilient health systems in safeguarding global health security. Importantly, the human, economic and political tolls of these crises are being amplified by health systems' inabilities to respond quickly and effectively. Improving resilience within health systems can build on pre-existing strengths to enhance the readiness of health system actors to respond to crises, while also maintaining core functions. Using data gathered from a scoping literature review, interviews with key informants and from stakeholders who attended a workshop held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we developed a Health System Resilience Checklist ('the checklist'). The aim of the checklist is to measure the specific capacities, capabilities and processes that health systems need in order to ensure resilience in the face of both infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards. The checklist is intended to be adapted and used in a broad set of countries as a component of ongoing processes to ensure that health actors, institutions and populations can mount an effective response to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards while also maintaining core healthcare services. The checklist is an important first step in improving health system resilience to these threats, but additional research and resources will be necessary to further refine and prioritise the checklist items and to pilot the checklist with the frontline health facilities that would be using it. This will help ensure its feasibility and durability for the long-term within the health systems strengthening and health security fields.

State by state implementation of Zika virus testing guidance in the United States in 2017 and 2018.

In 2015 and 2016, outbreaks of the Zika virus began occurring in the Americas and the Caribbean. Following the introduction of this new threat, the United States' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued testing guidance for the nation's state public health laboratories. We collected and analyzed testing guidance for all fifty states and the District of Columbia for both 2017 and 2018. In both years, state testing guidance was consistent for men and non-pregnant women, but there was notable variation in guidance for pregnant women. In addition, there were changes between the two years as testing algorithms shifted toward guidance that recommended testing in more limited circumstances. States adopted large, or complete, portions of CDC testing guidance, but were not required to conform completely, 33% of states had identical guidance in 2017 and 49% in 2018. Some of these trends, such as specifying that testing be contingent on travel, or sexual contact with an individual who has recently traveled, to an area where the Zika virus was circulating, presents a potential deficiency in the United States surveillance capacity. Understanding variations in state testing guidance enables public health professionals to better understand ongoing surveillance. This analysis provides insight into the testing practices for the various states across the country. Better understanding of how states approach Zika testing, and how that testing changes over time, will increase the public health community's ability to interpret future Zika case counts.

A Public Health Systems View of Risk Communication About Zika.

OBJECTIVES: The spread of Zika virus throughout Latin America and parts of the United States in 2016 and 2017 presented a challenge to public health communicators. The objective of our study was to describe emergency risk communication practices during the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak to inform future infectious disease communication efforts. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 13 public health policy makers and practitioners, 10 public information officers, and 5 vector-control officials from May through August 2017. RESULTS: Within the public health macro-environment, extended outbreak timeframe, government trust, US residence status, and economic insecurity set the backdrop for Zika communication efforts. Limited resources, staffing, and partnerships negatively affected public health structural capacity for communication efforts. Public health communicators and practitioners used a range of processes and practices to engage in education and outreach, including fieldwork, community meetings, and contact with health care providers. Overall, public health agencies' primary goals were to prevent Zika infection, reduce transmission, and prevent adverse birth outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Lessons learned from this disease response included understanding the macro-environment, developing partnerships across agencies and the community, and valuing diverse message platforms. These lessons can be used to improve communication approaches for health officials at the local, state, and federal levels during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Zika Inquiries Made to the CDC-INFO System, December 2015-September 2017.

We examined Zika-related inquiries to CDC-INFO, the national contact center for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to identify potential communication gaps. The most frequently asked questions related to travel or geographic location of Zika (42% of all inquiries), information about laboratory testing (13%), or acquiring a Zika test (11%).

What makes health systems resilient against infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards? Results from a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak was a wake-up call regarding the critical importance of resilient health systems. Fragile health systems can become overwhelmed during public health crises, further exacerbating the human, economic, and political toll. Important work has been done to describe the general attributes of a health system resilient to these crises, and the next step will be to identify the specific capacities that health systems need to develop and maintain to achieve resiliency. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify recurring themes and capacities needed for health system resiliency to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards and any existing implementation frameworks that highlight these capacities. We also sought to identify the overlap of the identified themes and capacities with those highlighted in the World Health Organization's Joint External Evaluation. Sources of evidence included PubMed, Web of Science, OAIster, and the websites of relevant major public health organizations. RESULTS: We identified 16 themes of health system resilience, including: the need to develop plans for altered standards of care during emergencies, the need to develop plans for post-event recovery, and a commitment to quality improvement. Most of the literature described the general attributes of a resilient health system; no implementation frameworks were identified that could translate these elements into specific capacities that health system actors can employ to improve resilience to outbreaks and natural hazards in a variety of settings. CONCLUSIONS: An implementation-oriented health system resilience framework could help translate the important components of a health system identified in this review into specific capacities that actors in the health system could work to develop to improve resilience to public health crises. However, there remains a need to further refine the concept of resilience so that health systems can simultaneously achieve sustainable transformations in healthcare practice and health service delivery as well as improve their preparedness for emergencies.

Establishing a theoretical foundation for measuring global health security: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Since the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic, the concept of measuring health security capacity has become increasingly important within the broader context of health systems-strengthening, enhancing responses to public health emergencies, and reducing global catastrophic biological risks. Efforts to regularly and sustainably track the evolution of health security capabilities and capacities over time - while also accounting for political, social, and environmental risks - could help countries progress toward eliminating sources of health insecurity. We sought to aggregate evidence-based principles that capture a country's baseline public health and healthcare capabilities, its health security system performance before and during infectious disease crises, and its broader social, political, security, and ecological risk environments. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of English-language scholarly and gray literature to identify evidence- and practice-based indicators and proxies for measuring health security at the country level over time. We then used a qualitative coding framework to identify recurrent themes in the literature and synthesize foundational principles for measuring global health security. Documents reviewed included English-language literature published after 2001 until the end of the research period-September 2017-to ensure relevance to the current global health security landscape; literature examining acute infectious disease threats with potential for transnational spread; and literature addressing global health security efforts at the country level. RESULTS: We synthesized four foundational principles for measuring global health security: measurement requires assessment of existing capacities, as well as efforts to build core public health, healthcare, and biosecurity capabilities; assessments of national programs and efforts to mitigate a critical subset of priority threats could inform efforts to generate useful metrics for global health security; there are measurable enabling factors facilitating health security-strengthening efforts; and finally, measurement requires consideration of social, political, and ecological risk environments. CONCLUSION: The themes identified in this review could inform efforts to systematically assess the impacts and effectiveness of activities undertaken to strengthen global health security.

Review of international efforts to strengthen the global outbreak response system since the 2014-16 West Africa Ebola Epidemic.

The 2014-16 West Africa Ebola epidemic was a watershed moment for global health. The outbreak galvanized global action around strengthening infectious disease prevention, detection and response capabilities. We examined the nascent landscape of international programmes, initiatives and institutions established in the aftermath of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak with the aim of assessing their progress to date to illustrate the current state of the world's global health security architecture. We also compare these efforts with shortcomings in epidemic management documented during the epidemic, and underscore remaining gaps in regional and global epidemic response capabilities that might benefit from additional programmatic and financial support. Notably, most of the post-Ebola initiatives considered in this analysis have yet to meet their financial goals. Operational progress has also been limited, revealing a need for continued investments to improve outbreak surveillance and detection capabilities specifically. Furthermore, our review highlighted the dominance of the USA and Europe in leading and financing efforts to coordinate long-term recovery efforts in West Africa, strengthen health systems across the continent, and enhance global preparedness for future epidemics, raising important questions about ownership of global health security efforts in non-Western regions of the world. Finally, the lack of transparency and available data on these initiatives' activities and budgets also complicate efforts to project their impacts on the global health security landscape.

1818, 1918, 2018: Two Centuries of Pandemics.

2018 marks the centennial of the 1918 influenza pandemic, widely acknowledged as one of the deadliest infectious disease crises in human history. As public health and medical communities of practice reflect on the aftermath of the influenza pandemic and the ways in which it has altered the trajectory of history and informed current practices in health security, it is worth noting that the Spanish flu was preceded by a very different 100-year threat: the first Asiatic cholera pandemic of 1817 to 1824. In this commentary, we offer a historical analysis of the common socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors underlying both pandemics, consider the roles of cholera and Spanish flu in shaping global health norms and modern public health practices, and examine how strategic applications of soft power and broadening the focus of health security to include sustainable development could help the world prepare for pandemics of the future.

Digital dental photography.

Photography has always been an integral part of dentistry. The journey goes back to the time when film photography was used only for documentation and referral purpose which has now evolved to digital photography. Its application in dental practice is simple, fast, and extremely useful in documenting procedures of work, education of patients, and pursuing clinical investigations, thus providing many benefits to the dentists and patients. The article describes the added benefits of digital dental photography over film photography, basic armamentarium for obtaining good photographs, and how digital dental photography is beneficial in the field of prosthodontics.

One-pot analysis of sulfated glycosaminoglycans.

Routine isolation, estimation, and characterization of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) is quite challenging. This is compounded by the fact that the analysis is technique-intensive and more often there will be a limitation on the quantity of GAGs available for various structural, functional and biological studies. In such a scenario, the sample which can be made available for estimation and elucidation of disaccharide composition and species composition as well remains a challenge. In the present study, we have determined the feasibility where isolated sulfated GAGs (sGAG) that is estimated by metachromasia is recovered for further analysis. sGAG-DMMB complex formed after estimation of sGAG by DMMB dye-binding assay was decomplexed and sGAGs were recovered. Recovered sGAGs were analysed by cellulose acetate membrane electrophoresis and taken up for disaccharide composition analysis by HPLC after fluorescent labelling. Good recovery of sGAGs after metachromasia was observed in all samples of varying levels of purity by this protocol. Further analysis using cellulose acetate membrane electrophoresis showed good separation between species of sGAGs namely chondroitin/dermatan sulfate and heparan sulfate, with comparatively lesser interference from hyaluronic acid, a non-sulfated GAG. Analysis of recovered sGAGs, specifically heparan sulfate by HPLC showed characteristic disaccharide composition akin to that of GAG obtained by the conventional protocol. Thus, in the present paper, we show that sGAG can be recovered in comparatively purer form after routine estimation and can be used for further analysis thus saving up on the precious sample.

Strengthening Health Systems Through International Blood Product Sharing Agreements.

Blood products are critical to the success of both routine healthcare delivery and emergency response efforts. Ensuring the safety and availability of blood products presents nations with considerable collection, screening, and distribution challenges that are often exacerbated by public health crises, particularly mass-casualty events involving traumatic injuries. However, recent outbreaks of Ebola and Zika virus disease have also illustrated the importance of securing blood product supplies during ongoing infectious disease emergencies. The United States and other nations should consider enhancing existing mechanisms for sharing medical countermeasures by creating formal agreements for sharing blood products during public health emergencies.

Emergency Preparedness in the 10-Mile Emergency Planning Zone Surrounding Nuclear Power Plants.

OBJECTIVES: Each of the nuclear power plants in the US is encircled by an Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). Within each EPZ, government officials, utility professionals, emergency managers, and public health practitioners collectively conduct extensive planning, exercises, and outreach to better protect their communities in the event of a nuclear accident. Our objective was to conduct a cross-sectional study of off-site public health preparedness within EPZs to better understand the dynamics of nuclear preparedness and uncover lessons for all-hazards preparedness. METHODS: Using a qualitative, interview-based method, we consulted 120 county emergency managers, state health preparedness officers, state radiation health officials, and industry officials from 17 EPZs in ten different states. RESULTS: Interviewees reflected that EPZ emergency preparedness is generally robust, results from strong public-private partnership between nuclear plants and emergency management agencies, and enhances all-hazard preparedness. However, there exist a few areas which merit further study and improvement. These areas include cross-state coordination, digital public communication, and optimizing the level of public education within EPZs. CONCLUSIONS: This first-of-its-kind study provides a cross-sectional snapshot of emergency preparedness in the 10-mile EPZ surrounding nuclear power plants.